Review the Latest Player Stats for Rays vs Orioles – Sunday, September 8th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 8, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. Currently, the Orioles stand at 82-61, showcasing a strong season, while the Rays sit at 70-72, struggling to find consistency. The stakes are high in this American League East clash, especially after the Rays decisively defeated the Orioles 7-1 in their last encounter on September 7.

Projected starters Corbin Burnes for the Orioles and Zack Littell for the Rays present a stark contrast. Burnes, ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB, has been having a solid year with a 3.19 ERA and a 13-7 win-loss record. His last outing saw him pitch effectively, allowing only 1 earned run over 5 innings. However, his high groundball rate (49 GB%) could work against a Rays lineup that lacks power, having hit just 97 home runs this season—the 5th least in MLB.

On the other side, Littell, a below-average pitcher with a 4.04 ERA, faces a daunting task. He’s projected to struggle against a potent Orioles offense that ranks 1st in MLB for home runs with 157 long balls this season. Littell’s tendency to allow fly balls may play into the hands of the Orioles’ powerful lineup.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Orioles, who are expected to score around 4.79 runs, compared to the Rays’ projected total of 3.60 runs. With the Orioles having a high implied team total of 4.37 runs, they are clear favorites heading into this matchup. As the teams battle it out in this crucial game, the Orioles will look to rebound from their previous loss and capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling opponent.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Littell to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jonny Deluca is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Corbin Burnes has used his cutter 11.5% less often this season (43.9%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Adley Rutschman’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 80.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-210)
  The 4th-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 127 games (+16.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 132 games (+10.65 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)