Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
(-120/+100)-150
The Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on April 9, 2025, in a National League East showdown. After securing a thrilling 7-5 win against the Phillies yesterday, the Braves hope to build momentum against a Philadelphia team that has started the season strong with a 7-3 record. In contrast, the Braves are struggling at 2-8, raising concerns among their fans regarding their ability to turn the season around.
Grant Holmes, projected to start for the Braves, has had a rough outing in his only start this season, posting a disappointing 7.20 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 0-1. His 4.95 xFIP suggests he is due for better results, but his recent performance, where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 innings, doesn’t inspire confidence. Notably, Holmes projects to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs today but also 5.3 hits, indicating potential trouble against a potent offense.
On the other side, Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Phillies. Despite being labeled as one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season, he comes off an impressive start where he went 6 innings without giving up a run. However, his xFIP of 4.47 indicates he might have had some luck on his side. With projections showing Walker allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs today, the Braves will need to capitalize on any opportunities against him.
Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, boasting a .324 batting average from their best hitter, who has been exceptional early in the season. Comparatively, the Braves rank 24th overall, struggling significantly with both batting average and home runs. With Atlanta’s offense faltering, they will need a collective effort to support Holmes and pull off another victory against the Phillies.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)Taijuan Walker is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Bryce Harper has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 27.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 21.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+125)The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 61.3% of the time, placing in the 84th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Ozzie Albies’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 14.2% to 25%.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
- The 10.2% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves ranks them as the #2 team in baseball since the start of last season by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 76 games at home (+29.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+9.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 44% ROI)