Review the Latest Player Stats for Phillies vs Braves – Sunday, June 29, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Atlanta Braves

On June 29, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing National League East matchup. The Braves, currently with a record of 38-44, find themselves in the midst of a disappointing season, while the Phillies are enjoying a strong campaign, sitting at 48-35. In their last game on June 28, the Braves secured a convincing 6-1 victory, while the Phillies were on the losing end of the same score, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of these two teams.

The Braves are projected to start right-hander Spencer Strider, who, despite ranking as the 17th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has struggled with a 3-5 record and a 4.07 ERA this season. However, the projections indicate a potential for better performance, suggesting that he may have been unlucky so far. Strider is expected to pitch about 5.4 innings, allowing around 2.3 earned runs, and his strikeout potential remains impressive at about 7.2 strikeouts per game.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez, who has been excellent this year, boasting a 6-2 record and a remarkable 2.08 ERA. The projections also estimate that he will pitch approximately 5.5 innings and allow about 2.9 earned runs. Suarez’s ability to limit walks (6.3 BB%) could give him an edge against the Braves, who rank as the 6th highest in walks drawn this season.

In terms of offensive output, the Braves rank 19th overall, while the Phillies come in at 9th, further emphasizing the competitive advantage for Philadelphia. With the Braves favored at -160 and an implied total of 4.40 runs, the betting line reflects a strong expectation for them to capitalize on their home-field advantage despite their below-average season. As these two teams square off, fans can expect a compelling clash of talent and strategy.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Ranger Suarez has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.4) implies that Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year with his 41.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Spencer Strider’s high usage rate of his fastball (55.2% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Eli White – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  In the last 7 days, Eli White’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 66 games (+10.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 68 games (+10.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)