Review the Latest Player Stats for Orioles vs Athletics – July 07, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Oakland Athletics

The Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics are set to face off on July 7, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum in the third game of their series. The Athletics, currently holding a 34-57 record, are experiencing a tough season. Conversely, the Orioles are having a stellar year with a 56-33 record, positioning themselves as one of the top teams in the American League.

The Athletics will send Mitch Spence to the mound, a right-hander who has had a mixed season. Despite his 5-4 record and 4.15 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky. His 3.61 xERA and 3.51 FIP indicate he could perform better moving forward. Spence’s high ground-ball rate (48 GB%) might help neutralize the Orioles’ powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 142 home runs this season.

On the other side, the Orioles will counter with Grayson Rodriguez, a right-handed pitcher boasting a 10-3 record and an impressive 3.45 ERA. Rodriguez’s high strikeout rate (26.2 K%) should play well against the Athletics, who rank 2nd in MLB in strikeouts. However, Rodriguez’s tendency to allow hits and walks (5.1 hits and 1.6 walks per game) could give Oakland some opportunities.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 27th in MLB, struggling in most categories except for home runs, where they are 7th. Max Schuemann has been a bright spot recently, hitting .385 with a 1.376 OPS over the last week. The Orioles, however, have one of the best offenses, ranking 2nd overall, 6th in batting average, and 1st in home runs. Ramon Urias has been on fire, hitting .571 with a 1.414 OPS over the last week.

Both teams have solid bullpens, with Oakland ranked 7th and Baltimore 11th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite Oakland’s bullpen strength, the Orioles’ superior offense and starting pitching give them the edge. The current betting odds reflect this, with Baltimore a significant favorite at -190, implying a 63% win probability. The Athletics, with a +165 moneyline, have a 37% implied win probability.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Grayson Rodriguez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Grayson Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2211 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2272 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In terms of his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 40.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Baltimore’s 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Mitch Spence has a mean strikeout projection of 4 batters in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Max Schuemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Max Schuemann has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brent Rooker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)