Review the Latest Player Stats for Mets vs Phillies – Monday, September 8, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

On September 8, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park for the first game in their series. The stakes are high, as the Phillies sit at 83-60, enjoying a solid season, while the Mets, with a record of 76-67, are aiming to stay relevant in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot. Recent performances have been noteworthy; the Mets’ best hitter has been on fire, recording three home runs in the last week, showcasing their offensive depth.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Nolan McLean for the Mets. Nola has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a troubling ERA of 6.78, suggesting he’s been unlucky and may improve. His xFIP of 3.85 indicates potential for better outings, but he projects to allow an average of 5.3 hits today, which is concerning.

On the other hand, McLean has been exceptional, boasting a perfect 4-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.37. However, his xFIP of 2.74 hints at some luck that may not hold up. He projects to pitch only 4.9 innings today, which is below average.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 7th in MLB, while the Mets hold a slightly better position at 4th. The Phillies have shown strong batting with a team average that ranks 3rd overall, but they will need to capitalize on Nola’s pitching to support their playoff push. Meanwhile, the Mets, with their potent lineup, could exploit Nola’s inefficiencies.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game. With the Phillies having an implied team total of 4.15 runs and the Mets at 4.35 runs, this matchup is shaping up to be a closely contested battle in the National League East.

New York Mets Insights

• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brandon Nimmo has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 101.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Mets projected batting order profiles as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this season (91.1 mph) below where it was last year (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has suffered from bad luck this year. His .299 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .339.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+19.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 37% ROI)