Review the Latest Player Stats for Mariners vs Angels – Saturday, August 31st, 2024

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum. After a recent victory over the Angels by a score of 9-5, the Mariners aim to build on their average season record of 69-66, while the Angels, struggling at 55-80, are trying to recover from a disappointing year.

Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Angels, coming off a solid performance in his last start, where he pitched 5 innings with 2 earned runs. However, he has an xFIP of 4.82, suggesting that he may have been fortunate so far this season. Bryan Woo, on the other hand, is slated to pitch for the Mariners. With an impressive ERA of 2.05 and strong strikeout abilities, Woo has garnered attention as one of the league’s top pitchers, ranked 29th out of around 350.

Offensively, the Angels rank 26th in MLB, indicating significant struggles at the plate. Their best hitter this season, Zach Neto, has shown promise with 20 home runs, but the overall team performance has been underwhelming. In contrast, Seattle ranks 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average, which places them in a precarious position despite their recent success.

The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Angels have a projected win probability of 42%, which contrasts with their implied team total of just 3.35 runs for this matchup. Meanwhile, the projections favor the Mariners to score around 5.13 runs, underscoring their status as the favorite. As both teams look to make an impact down the stretch, this matchup holds significant weight for their respective narratives.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Bryan Woo was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and compiled 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Despite posting a .301 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has had bad variance on his side given the .059 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .360.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Tyler Anderson has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Zach Neto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 76 games (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+175/-230)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 35 games (+9.25 Units / 26% ROI)