Review the Latest Player Stats for Guardians vs Tigers – Tuesday, September 16th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on September 16, 2025, both teams are looking to make an impact in this American League Central matchup. The Tigers enter this game with a solid record of 85-65, positioning them well for a postseason push, while the Guardians sit at 78-71, having an above-average season but not in contention for the division title.

In their last outing, the Tigers were able to secure a victory, showcasing their strong offense which ranks 11th in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs, where they rank 10th. This offensive prowess will be key as they face Joey Cantillo, who has been effective but is projected to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs today. Cantillo’s 3.36 ERA is impressive, but his 3.88 SIERA suggests he may not maintain that level of performance going forward.

Detroit is set to start Casey Mize, who has had a commendable season with a 14-5 record and a 3.83 ERA. Mize’s ability to pitch 5.1 innings on average with a solid strikeout rate of 4.4 batters per game will be crucial against a Guardians offense that ranks 29th overall and dead last in batting average. The projections indicate that Mize might face challenges, especially with a high-strikeout Tigers lineup that ranks 6th in that category.

With the Tigers favored at -145 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.31 runs, they look to capitalize on their home field advantage at Comerica Park. Meanwhile, the Guardians, who have struggled offensively, are projected for only 3.69 runs. This matchup presents a significant opportunity for the Tigers to assert their dominance and continue their successful run as they head toward the postseason.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Joey Cantillo should be in good shape going up against 7 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the other side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Jones has been unlucky this year. His .272 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .316.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  In today’s matchup, Jose Ramirez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.3% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Casey Mize’s 94-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.4-mph fall off from last season’s 95.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Wenceel Perez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Detroit Tigers have been the 4th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 86 of their last 149 games (+20.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 52 away games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)