
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Toronto Blue Jays
-140O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+120
(+100/-120)+120
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #3 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Miguel Rojas has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.1-mph average to last season’s 85-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Kevin Gausman’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (53.8% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 104 of their last 177 games (+24.69 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)Freddie Freeman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+9.80 Units / 109% ROI)
