Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-105
On May 13, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park in what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup. The last game of this series saw the Giants narrowly defeat the Diamondbacks, showcasing their competitive spirit as they strive to maintain momentum in their season.
Currently, the Giants hold a record of 24-18, putting them in a solid position within the division. Their offense, while ranking 20th in MLB, has struggled at times, particularly with a batting average that sits at 25th. However, the Giants’ strength lies in their bullpen, which ranks 1st in MLB, providing a safety net that could be crucial in close games.
Robbie Ray is slated to take the mound for the Giants. Despite an average ranking of 118th among MLB starting pitchers, he boasts an impressive 5-0 record this season with a stellar ERA of 2.84. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 4.20 xFIP indicates potential regression. Ray’s tendency to allow high flyball rates may play into the hands of a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in home runs this season.
On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to start for the Diamondbacks. With a 6-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.28, he has also benefited from favorable projections. However, both pitchers face challenges, as they each project to allow a considerable number of hits.
The current moneyline suggests a close contest, with the Giants at -105 and the Diamondbacks at -115. Given the Giants’ strong bullpen and the potential for Ray to deliver a quality start, they may have the upper hand, despite their offensive struggles. The low game total of 7.5 runs further emphasizes the tight nature of this matchup, making it an intriguing watch for bettors.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Brandon Pfaadt’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph fall off from last season’s 93.9-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Eugenio Suarez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season’s 92.6-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Ketel Marte projects as the 12th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- San Francisco’s 16.3° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball this year: #1 overall.Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+6.10 Units / 19% ROI)