Review the Latest Player Stats for Braves vs Phillies – Friday, August 30, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on August 30, 2024, they find themselves in a critical matchup. The Phillies are currently enjoying a robust season with a record of 79-55, positioning them well for a playoff run. In contrast, the Braves sit at 73-61, showcasing an above-average campaign but trailing behind in the standings.

These two rivals just squared off yesterday, with the Phillies edging out the Braves in a nail-biter that ended 5-4, further solidifying Philadelphia’s dominance in the series. Today’s game marks the second in this pivotal matchup, and the stakes remain high for both clubs.

On the mound for the Phillies is Ranger Suarez, who has been exceptional this year with an 11-5 record and a stellar 2.82 ERA. While his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a slight regression, he has still proven to be one of the league’s better pitchers, ranking as the 26th best starter in MLB. Suarez is also coming off a solid outing, having allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings in his last start.

Conversely, Reynaldo Lopez will take the hill for the Braves. With a record of 7-4 and a remarkable 2.02 ERA, Lopez has been a bright spot for Atlanta. However, his performance metrics indicate possible overachievement this season, as reflected by his 3.73 xFIP.

The Phillies’ offense is currently ranked 7th overall in MLB, and they lead in several categories, including batting average (3rd) and home runs (6th). With Kyle Schwarber leading the charge, their offensive depth poses a significant threat to Lopez, especially considering the Braves’ struggles this season in generating runs.

According to projections, the Phillies are expected to score 4.58 runs on average, presenting a favorable outlook for their offense against what has been a mediocre Braves bullpen. With the game total set low at 7.5 runs, bettors may find value in backing the Phillies, who are positioned as slight favorites at -135.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Reynaldo Lopez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Placing 3rd-least steep in MLB this year, Atlanta Braves hitters jointly have notched a 11.7° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (a reliable stat to measure power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this season (90.3 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (20.7) implies that Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side this year with his 30.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 125 games (+28.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)