Review the Latest Player Stats for Blue Jays vs Angels – Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 14, 2024, the stakes are heightened. Both teams find themselves underwhelming this season, with the Angels sitting at a 52-67 record and the Blue Jays at 55-64. Neither team is in contention for a division title, adding to the significance of this matchup as they seek to finish strong.

In their previous game, the Angels suffered a disappointing loss. The Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the mound, who has had a somewhat mixed year. With a solid ERA of 2.99, his advanced stats paint a different picture—his xFIP of 4.76 suggests he has been a bit lucky and may regress. Anderson’s low strikeout rate of 18.8% could be a concern, especially against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled offensively overall, ranking 21st in the league. However, it’s noteworthy that Anderson has found success against teams with limited power—an asset against a Blue Jays squad that ranks 27th in home runs.

On the opposing side, the Blue Jays will rely on Jose Berrios, who boasts a win-loss record of 10-9 and an ERA of 3.97. Though he is also surrounded by the aura of mediocrity, Berrios has faced his own challenges, with an xFIP of 4.53 suggesting he too may be due for a decline.

Betting markets imply this matchup is close, setting both teams’ moneyline at -110. The projected Game Total stands at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive contest. As both teams look to build momentum, this game may provide an unexpected turning point in their seasons.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  This season, Jose Berrios has added a new pitch to his repertoire (a slider), utilizing it on 29.4% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all starters, Tyler Anderson’s fastball velocity of 88.7 mph grades out in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Kevin Pillar’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.6-mph EV last year has dropped off to 87.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kevin Pillar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  In today’s matchup, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+17.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+16.05 Units / 36% ROI)