Review the Latest Player Stats for Astros vs Phillies – Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Houston Astros

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Houston Astros on August 28, 2024, this matchup holds significance for both teams, albeit in different contexts. The Phillies sit comfortably at 78-54, showcasing a strong season and currently positioned well for a potential playoff run. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 70-62, find themselves in a more precarious position, needing to string together wins to stay relevant in the Wild Card chase.

In their last encounter on August 27, the Phillies shut out the Astros 5-0, a decisive victory that highlighted their offensive prowess and solid pitching. The Phillies hope to maintain that momentum, projected to start Taijuan Walker, who has struggled this season with a 6.26 ERA and a 3-5 record. However, he has an expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.94, indicating he may have been unlucky and could turn things around. Walker’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against an Astros offense that ranks 2nd in batting average, yet his high walk rate might mitigate the damage against a team that does not typically capitalize on free passes.

On the other side, the Astros will send Spencer Arrighetti to the mound. With a 4.94 ERA and a 6-11 record, Arrighetti has also faced challenges this season. His high flyball rate could be problematic against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Phillies are favored in this contest with a projected win probability of 52%. The projections suggest a close game, with both teams expected to score around 5 runs each. As the stakes rise, fans can anticipate an engaging battle at Citizens Bank Park.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Arrighetti to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (12th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Houston Astros (20.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Taijuan Walker’s slider usage has increased by 7.1% from last season to this one (2.8% to 9.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Bryce Harper’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games at home (+15.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 35 games (+29.40 Units / 84% ROI)