Review the Dodgers vs Rockies Match Preview and Winning Probability – August 18th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 18, 2025, it’s worth noting that both teams are entering this game after contrasting performances in their previous outings. The Rockies recently edged out the Dodgers with a narrow 6-5 victory, while the Dodgers triumphed 5-4 in their last matchup. However, the stakes remain high, especially with the Dodgers firmly in the playoff hunt, boasting a solid 71-53 record, in stark contrast to the Rockies’ disappointing 35-89 season.

Kyle Freeland is projected to start for Colorado, and while he showed promise in his last start by pitching 7 innings with no earned runs, his overall stats tell a different story. With a 3-12 record and an ERA of 5.18, he ranks as the 189th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a challenging year. The projections suggest Freeland will struggle again, allowing an average of 3.9 earned runs over 4.7 innings.

On the other hill, the Dodgers will rely on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been a standout performer with a 10-8 record and an impressive ERA of 2.84, ranking him 6th among MLB starters. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 6 earned runs, he remains a high-strikeout pitcher against a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Dodgers are thriving, sitting 3rd in MLB with a robust batting average and 2nd in home runs, while the Rockies rank near the bottom in most offensive categories. This game’s total is set at a high 11.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. Given the Rockies’ underwhelming season and the Dodgers’ strong form, this matchup heavily favors Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s curveball usage has dropped by 6.3% from last year to this one (23.2% to 16.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Dalton Rushing – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Dalton Rushing has a ton of pop (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Rushing.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Kyle Freeland’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 16th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Hunter Goodman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects for the 3rd-most runs of the day, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 122 games (+14.67 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ryan Ritter has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)