Review the Dodgers vs Rockies Match Preview and Winning Probability – August 18th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Colorado Rockies

On August 18, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field for the first game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup in starkly different situations. The Rockies, sitting at 35-89, have had a dismal season, ranking 25th in MLB with a struggling offense. In contrast, the Dodgers are performing well at 71-53, boasting the 3rd best offense in the league.

In their most recent outings, the Rockies edged out the Dodgers in a close game, winning 6-5, while the Dodgers previously triumphed in a nail-biter against another opponent, 5-4. The contrasting momentum could play a role in this series opener.

Kyle Freeland is projected to take the mound for Colorado. Despite a rough season indicated by a 3-12 record and a 5.18 ERA, he showed promise in his last start, pitching 7 scoreless innings. His ability to limit walks (5.9 BB%) might help against a Dodgers offense known for drawing walks, as they rank 2nd in MLB. However, Freeland’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a high-strikeout Rockies lineup.

On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start for Los Angeles. With a solid 10-8 record and an impressive 2.84 ERA, he has been an elite presence on the mound. However, he struggled in his last outing, giving up 6 earned runs, which raises questions about his current form.

With the projections favoring the Dodgers to score heavily, they have an implied team total of 6.86 runs. Meanwhile, the Rockies, despite their recent win, face uphill odds with an average implied total of just 4.14 runs. This matchup presents a classic pitcher vs. offense duel that could very well shift the momentum of the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s curveball usage has dropped by 6.3% from last year to this one (23.2% to 16.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Alex Call is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Kyle Freeland’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 16th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Hunter Goodman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects for the 3rd-most runs of the day, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 122 games (+14.67 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ryan Ritter has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)