Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
(+100/-120)-120
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers in a pivotal National League Central matchup on August 21, 2024. Both teams are coming off a close contest the previous day, where the Cardinals fell to the Brewers by a narrow 3-2 margin. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 61-64, are having an average season, while the Brewers boast a strong 73-52 record, indicating their playoff aspirations.
St. Louis will send Kyle Gibson to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 7-5 record and a 4.26 ERA. However, his 4.96 xERA suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, indicating potential struggles ahead. In his last outing on August 14, Gibson struggled significantly, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings in this matchup, likely giving up around 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.4 hits and 1.8 walks per game could be problematic against a solid Brewers lineup.
On the other side, Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers takes the hill, carrying a 6-5 record and an excellent 2.81 ERA. While his underlying metrics indicate he, too, might regress, he performed well in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings. The projections indicate he could give up around 2.4 earned runs, with a concerning trend of allowing 4.9 hits per outing.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 19th overall in the league, struggling particularly with power, as evidenced by their 22nd ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Brewers’ offense ranks 10th in MLB, featuring standout performances from players like Willy Adames, who has had a stellar season with 85 RBIs and a .784 OPS.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)Among all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 85.5-mph EV last season has dropped off to 83.4-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Kyle Gibson has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Matt Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Matt Carpenter has recorded a .179 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 21.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 48 games (+3.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 119 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 34 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)