Review the Blue Jays vs Rays Match Preview and Winning Probability – September 16th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 16, 2025, they find themselves in a pivotal matchup. The Rays, currently sitting at 73-77, are experiencing an average season, while the Blue Jays boast an impressive 88-62 record, making their success apparent. In the previous game of this series, Tampa Bay fell to Toronto by a narrow margin of 2-1, further highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup.

Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays, coming off a remarkable performance where he pitched a 5-inning no-hitter against the New York Yankees on September 4. This season, Pepiot has a Win/Loss record of 11-10 and a solid ERA of 3.59, ranking him as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.40 FIP suggests he may have been fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Pepiot’s projected performance today indicates he may struggle, with an average of only 4.5 innings pitched and 4.3 hits allowed.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with José Berríos, who has had a mixed season with a 9-5 record and a 3.99 ERA. While Berríos has been below average in terms of strikeouts, he has managed to keep his team in games. The projections suggest he will pitch about 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 2nd in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Rays’ offense is ranked 14th, indicating a potential advantage for Toronto in this matchup. With both teams having an implied team total of 4.00 runs, the betting markets expect a close contest. Given the Rays’ recent struggles and the Blue Jays’ strong season, this game could tilt in favor of Toronto as they look to capitalize on their momentum.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this season and has thrown it 26.1% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Andres Gimenez has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .211 BA is a good deal lower than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Ryan Pepiot’s 2410-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Feduccia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Hunter Feduccia has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 6.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay has been the #29 offense in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (14.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 146 games (+10.90 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 117 games (+20.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 76% ROI)