Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
(-105/-115)-135
As the Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 13, 2025, the stakes are palpable in this American League East matchup. The Orioles, currently struggling with a 6-8 record, are looking to build on their recent victory over the Blue Jays, where they edged out a thrilling 5-4 win just a day prior. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays sit at 8-7, enjoying an above-average start to the season.
On the mound, the Orioles will send Cade Povich to face off against the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. Povich, a left-handed pitcher, has had a rocky start to the season, posting a 0-1 record with a solid 3.48 ERA. However, his 5.45 xERA suggests he may have been a bit lucky so far, and he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs today, which could be challenging given his propensity for allowing hits—averaging 5.1 per game. Conversely, Berrios, a right-hander with a 1-1 record and a 4.58 ERA, has shown inconsistency. His high walk rate of 11.1 BB% may play into the Orioles’ favor, especially since they rank as the 4th least patient offense in MLB.
Offensively, the Orioles rank 18th in home runs and 21st in stolen bases, indicating a lack of power and speed. However, their best hitter boasts a 0.295 batting average and a strong 1.006 OPS, which could be pivotal against Berrios. The Blue Jays, while ranking 6th in batting average, struggle with power, sitting 29th in home runs.
With a projected game total of 8.5 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest. The Orioles have a favorable moneyline set at -135, suggesting they might be undervalued given their recent form and the matchup against a struggling Berrios. As both teams seek to establish momentum, this game promises to be a competitive affair worth watching.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Jose Berrios has added a slider to his repertoire this season and has mixed it in 29.7% of the time.Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively grade out 26th- in the game for power since the start of last season when using their 7.2% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)Cade Povich has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in Major League Baseball on balls in play since the start of last season with a .316 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
- Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jordan Westburg has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season’s 93.3-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+150)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 85 of their last 165 games (+6.60 Units / 3% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Gunnar Henderson has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 48% ROI)