Review the Astros vs Reds Insights and Game Breakdown – September 4, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cincinnati Reds

On September 4, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Houston Astros at Great American Ball Park in an Interleague matchup. Both teams come into this game with contrasting fortunes, as the Reds sit at 66-73, reflecting a below-average season, while the Astros hold a solid 75-63 record, indicative of their above-average performance. The Astros, who are looking to maintain their position in the playoff race, will have a favorable outlook as they enter this matchup.

In their last game, the Astros outperformed the Reds, highlighting the offensive prowess led by Yordan Alvarez, who has made a significant impact recently with six runs and five home runs over the past week. Alvarez’s form will be crucial against Reds’ projected starter Nick Martinez, who has a respectable ERA of 3.78 and a Win/Loss record of 6-6 this season. Despite being ranked as the 114th best starting pitcher in the league, Martinez challenges a low-strikeout Astros lineup, which could hinder his usual strengths. His projected performance today indicates potential struggles, particularly as he is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.7 hits, showcasing vulnerability.

On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti, projected to start for the Astros, presents his own challenges despite having a Win/Loss record of 7-11 and an ERA of 4.63. The Reds offense has been caught in a slump, ranking 27th in team batting average, but they do pose a threat with their ability to hit home runs, positioning them as a wildcard in the matchup.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and an implied team total of 4.19 for the Reds compared to 4.81 for the Astros, this game promises an engaging battle where Houston’s high-ranking offense aims to exploit Cincinnati’s pitching weaknesses.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Spencer Arrighetti is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Victor Caratini has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 95.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston’s 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #23 squad in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Martinez has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged being matched up with 6 same-handed hitters in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Amed Rosario usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 134 games (+17.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 47 games (+13.65 Units / 24% ROI)