Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)-155
The Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies on August 22, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Nationals currently sit with a record of 57-70, while the Rockies are struggling even more at 47-80. Both teams have faced disappointing seasons, with the Rockies recently losing to the Nationals by a score of 6-1 in their last matchup on August 21. The Nationals have been showing some signs of life, winning that game decisively.
On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Patrick Corbin, who has had a rough year with a Win/Loss record of 2-12 and a high ERA of 5.92. However, Corbin’s 4.35 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. In his last start on August 16, Corbin pitched 5.5 innings, allowing 2 earned runs, which aligns with his average projections for the game.
Opposing him is Cal Quantrill, who has an average ERA of 4.59 and a Win/Loss record of 8-8. Both pitchers are among the lower ranks in the league, but Quantrill has been a bit more effective overall.
The Nationals’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling particularly in power categories, as they sit 29th in home runs. However, they excel in speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rockies have shown more balance, ranking 17th overall in offense and 10th in home runs.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Nationals have a win probability of 54%, which is slightly above their current implied odds. With the Rockies’ struggles and the Nationals’ recent win, there may be value in backing the Nationals in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Cal Quantrill’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2113 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2187 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jordan Beck has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 75.3-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Brenton Doyle has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Patrick Corbin will concede an average of 2.69 earned runs in today’s matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Alex Call – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Alex Call has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .425 rate is quite a bit higher than his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Joey Gallo, Jose Tena).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+630/-1200)Alex Call has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.10 Units / 253% ROI)