Review Player Predictions Overview for Reds vs Twins – Sunday September 15, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare for their September 15, 2024 matchup against the Cincinnati Reds at Target Field, they look to build on their above-average season with a record of 78-70. The Reds, meanwhile, sit at 73-77, having struggled to find consistency. This Interleague showdown marks the third game in the series, and the Twins will aim to capitalize on their recent performance as they hope to stay in contention for a playoff spot.

In their last outing, the Twins faced the Reds and secured a victory, which added to their momentum. The Twins’ offense ranks 9th in MLB, boasting a commendable team batting average that underscores their ability to generate runs. With Kyle Farmer shining over the past week—hitting .455 with two home runs and a 1.682 OPS—they are well-positioned to exploit any weaknesses in Cincinnati’s pitching.

On the mound, Minnesota is set to start Simeon Woods Richardson, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise this season. In contrast, the Reds will send Rhett Lowder to the hill, who has had a rough start despite boasting an impressive ERA of 0.59. However, with a 4.46 xFIP, it appears that Lowder has been benefiting from some good fortune, suggesting he may struggle against a potent Twins lineup that ranks 10th in home runs.

The projections favor the Twins, who are expected to score around 5.52 runs, while the Reds are projected for 4.66 runs. With the Twins as betting favorites at -160 and an implied total of 4.68 runs, they enter this game with a high level of confidence. As the teams clash, it will be intriguing to see if the Twins can maintain their offensive prowess against Lowder and continue their pursuit of a successful season.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Rhett Lowder has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 12.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, David Festa ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#3-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 81 of their last 142 games (+11.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)