Review Player Predictions Overview for Rays vs D-Backs – Thursday April 24, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on April 24, 2025, at Chase Field, the stakes are notable. The D-Backs are looking to extend their strong start, currently holding a record of 14-10, while the Rays struggle at 10-14. In their previous matchup, the Diamondbacks secured a solid win, showcasing their offensive prowess.

In this interleague showdown, Arizona projects to start Corbin Burnes, who, despite a 0-1 record and a 4.64 ERA this season, ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball according to advanced metrics. However, his 5.43 FIP suggests that he may have been somewhat fortunate thus far. Burnes is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings and allow approximately 2.3 earned runs, which can be seen as a positive, but he also projects to give up 5.3 hits and walk 1.6 batters—numbers that could be concerning against a patient Rays lineup.

On the other hand, Drew Rasmussen, with a 1-1 record and an impressive 0.87 ERA, is viewed as an elite option on the mound, ranking 12th in MLB. Rasmussen’s projections indicate he will pitch about 5.1 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, but his low strikeout rate against the third least strikeout-prone offense in the league may be an advantage for the Diamondbacks.

Arizona’s offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB, bolstered by their top hitter’s recent form, showcasing a 0.375 batting average over the last week. This offensive capability, combined with a projected team total of 4.23 runs, suggests that the D-Backs may have the edge in this matchup despite the closeness of the betting line, making them a team to watch in today’s contest.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 53.6% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Danny Jansen has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.4% rate last season has fallen to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays batters as a unit have been among the best in the league this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Out of all SPs, Corbin Burnes’s fastball spin rate of 1805 rpm ranks in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last season’s 92.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Josh Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)