Review Player Predictions Overview for Rays vs D-Backs – Thursday April 24, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 24, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially after the Diamondbacks fell short to the Rays by a score of 7-6 just yesterday. Currently, the Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong season with a record of 14-10, placing them in a favorable position, while the Rays sit at 10-14, struggling to find consistency.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Corbin Burnes, who has had an average season thus far with a 4.64 ERA and a 0-1 record over four starts. Despite his Power Rankings status as the 39th best starting pitcher, Burnes faces a tough challenge against a Rays lineup that ranks 11th in MLB. The projections suggest he may allow 2.2 earned runs over about 5.9 innings, though his tendency to give up hits (5.3 projected) and walks (1.6 projected) could play a pivotal role.

Drew Rasmussen, on the other hand, is slated to start for the Rays and has been exceptional with a 0.87 ERA and a 1-1 record in four starts. His elite ranking as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB underscores his potential to dominate, although he may find it challenging against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in the league. Rasmussen’s ability to limit walks (6.6% BB rate) could give him an advantage against the Diamondbacks’ patient hitters, who rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks.

With the Diamondbacks holding an implied team total of 4.50 runs, they are expected to put up a solid offensive showing, backed by their powerful lineup. Given the current trajectories of both teams, the Diamondbacks appear to have the edge in this matchup, especially with their strong offensive rankings and the Rays’ ongoing struggles.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 53.6% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays batters as a unit have been among the best in the league this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 89-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Josh Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.85 Units / 35% ROI)