Review Player Predictions Overview for Rangers vs Blue Jays – Friday July 26, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on July 26, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Blue Jays sit at 46-56, having endured a tough season, while the Rangers hold a 51-52 record, hovering around .500. This American League matchup kicks off a new series, with the Blue Jays hoping to rebound from a demoralizing 13-0 loss to the Rays last night. Conversely, the Rangers come in with momentum from a tight 2-1 victory over the White Sox.

On the mound, Toronto will start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-hander ranked #89 in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an above-average pitcher. Despite a 4-9 record and a 4.54 ERA, Kikuchi’s 3.32 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could improve. Kikuchi has been serviceable, averaging 5.3 innings per start and is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.6 batters today.

Andrew Heaney, also a left-hander, will toe the rubber for Texas. Heaney’s 4-10 record belies a 3.60 ERA, though his 4.18 xFIP indicates some luck has been on his side. THE BAT X projects Heaney to allow 2.7 earned runs over 4.9 innings, putting the Rangers in a tough spot given their reliance on their #7 ranked bullpen.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. Toronto’s lineup ranks 23rd overall, with minimal power, sitting 27th in home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot, especially over the last week, boasting a .429 average with 4 home runs and a 1.526 OPS. Texas, ranked 20th in offense, will look to Marcus Semien and recent standout Robbie Grossman to counter.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Toronto a 53% win probability, slightly above the implied odds. Betting markets are consistent, projecting a close contest with a Blue Jays win implied at -125. Whether Kikuchi’s underlying metrics translate to actual results could very well determine the outcome of this series opener.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.8% more often this year (48.1%) than he did last season (42.3%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nathaniel Lowe has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.20 Units / 44% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+14.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 24 games (+18.50 Units / 77% ROI)