Review Player Predictions Overview for Padres vs Tigers – Tuesday April 22, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Detroit Tigers

On April 22, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres at Comerica Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Tigers, boasting a record of 14-9, are coming off a solid 6-4 victory against the Padres, who currently sit at 16-7. Both teams have been performing well this season, each showing promise in their respective divisions.

Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is projected to start on the mound, holding an ERA of 2.53, which is indicative of a strong season thus far. However, his xFIP of 3.58 suggests he may be due for some regression, especially considering that he has allowed an average of 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks per game. Flaherty’s high strikeout rate of 28.7% might face a challenge against the Padres’ offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB. San Diego’s Nick Pivetta, with an ERA of 1.57, is also having an impressive season, but his 3.10 xFIP indicates he might encounter difficulties moving forward as well.

The Tigers’ offense ranks 11th in MLB, with a particular weakness in home runs, standing at 19th. In contrast, the Padres are 1st in team batting average and possess a balanced offensive attack, averaging a solid number of runs per game. Betting markets currently favor the Tigers with a moneyline of -125, indicating a belief in their ability to edge out the Padres in what should be a close matchup.

As both teams clash again after yesterday’s contest, the Tigers will look to build on their recent success, while the Padres will aim to bounce back and regain their winning form. With the stakes high and both pitchers showcasing their abilities, this matchup promises to deliver an exciting game for fans and bettors alike.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Pivetta’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (53.4 vs. 48.2% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph average last year has lowered to 82.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the San Diego Padres in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .309, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 93.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.10 Units / 47% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)