Review Player Predictions Overview for Padres vs Tigers – Tuesday April 22, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Detroit Tigers

On April 22, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres at Comerica Park in an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons so far, with the Tigers sitting at 14-9 and the Padres at 16-7. Notably, the Padres emerged victorious in yesterday’s matchup, showcasing their potent offense.

The Tigers are projected to start Jack Flaherty, who has made four starts this year and boasts a 1-1 record with an impressive 2.53 ERA. However, his 3.58 xFIP suggests he may be benefiting from some luck, which could mean a dip in performance ahead. Flaherty’s ability to strike out batters (28.7 K%) faces a challenge against the Padres’ offense, which ranks as the 4th best in MLB and has the fewest strikeouts in the league. This dynamic could tilt the odds in favor of San Diego.

In the opposing dugout, the Padres will counter with Nick Pivetta, who’s had an even better season, sporting a 3-1 record and a remarkable 1.57 ERA. Pivetta’s projections also indicate solid performance, with expected runs and strikeouts aligning favorably. His matchup against the Tigers’ high-strikeout lineup, which ranks 5th in the league in strikeouts, favors Pivetta significantly.

From an offensive perspective, while the Tigers rank just 14th in MLB, their 12th in batting average is a positive sign. Yet, their struggles on the base paths (29th in stolen bases) may limit scoring opportunities. Conversely, the Padres’ offensive prowess, highlighted by their 1st ranking in batting average and solid run production, marks them as the more dangerous team in this clash.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations of strong pitching. With both teams at a moneyline of -110, market sentiment indicates a tightly contested affair. This matchup promises to be a compelling battle of pitching, particularly with Pivetta’s current form likely keeping the Tigers’ offense in check.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Nick Pivetta’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (53.4 vs. 48.2% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 85.8-mph average last year has lowered to 82.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the San Diego Padres in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 93.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.10 Units / 47% ROI)