San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-110
The St. Louis Cardinals look to overcome their average season as they host the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium on August 29, 2024. While the Cardinals sit at 66-67, they are currently chasing a Wild Card spot in a competitive National League landscape. The Padres, at 76-59, have had a strong season and are vying for a playoff berth as well. Each team is coming off a prior matchup in which they traded victories, with St. Louis hoping to build momentum against a strong opponent.
On the mound for the Cardinals is Sonny Gray, who has had an up-and-down year, evidenced by his 4.07 ERA, which is above average. Gray has started 24 games and holds an 11-9 record. While he brings a solid strikeout rate of 30.4%, he faces a Padres lineup that is known for its low strikeout rate, making this matchup intriguing. The projections suggest he may allow 2.3 earned runs, which could be enough if the Cardinals’ offense can capitalize.
Opposing Gray will be Michael King for the Padres, who has been impressive with a 3.14 ERA and a record of 11-7 over 25 starts. Notably, King ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is more than capable of silencing St. Louis’ bats.
The Cardinals’ offense ranks 19th in MLB, struggling particularly with home runs (22nd) and hits allowed (5.3 projected today), while the Padres boast the 8th best offense overall and 1st in team batting average. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and both teams sitting at a moneyline of -110, these squads appear evenly matched, but the projections lean slightly towards the Padres. However, if Paul Goldschmidt continues his recent hot streak, the Cardinals could very well defy the odds.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Michael King – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Michael King has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)David Peralta has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Today, Kyle Higashioka is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.5% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Sonny Gray’s cutter utilization has spiked by 5.6% from last season to this one (13.1% to 18.7%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.7-mph average last year has lowered to 87.6-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+3.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 away games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+11.85 Units / 23% ROI)