Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals
(-120/+100)-135
As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 4, 2024, this American League Central matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Guardians currently sit atop the division with a strong 80-59 record, while the Royals are having a solid season at 75-65. With both teams vying for position in the playoff race, every game counts.
In their last outing, the Royals faced off against the Guardians, but the specific result is not noted here. Seth Lugo is projected to take the mound for Kansas City, boasting a respectable 3.12 ERA this season, placing him as an average pitcher in the league according to advanced metrics. Despite his average ranking, Lugo’s performance has shown signs of luck, as his 3.90 xFIP suggests he may struggle moving forward. He has started 28 games this season, earning a solid 14-8 record.
On the other hand, Ben Lively will start for Cleveland. Although his 3.92 ERA is commendable, he ranks among the lower tiers of starting pitchers this season, with a 4.56 xFIP indicating potential struggles ahead. Both pitchers are right-handed and have similar innings projections, with Lugo at 5.4 and Lively at 5.2.
The Royals’ offense ranks 12th overall in MLB, showing average talent, but they do excel in batting average, ranking 11th. In contrast, the Guardians’ offense sits at 18th, lacking the same firepower, despite their better overall record. With the Royals listed as slight favorites at -140, betting enthusiasts might find value in their potential to capitalize on Lively’s weaknesses, especially given their favorable matchup against a low-strikeout pitcher. The projected game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Ben Lively – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ben Lively is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of all pitchers on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Seth Lugo has utilized his secondary pitches 6.3% more often this season (54.5%) than he did last season (48.2%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- As a team, Kansas City Royals hitters have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 4th-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 57 away games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)