Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-140
The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 10, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are having fantastic seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 59-32 record and the Dodgers not far behind at 55-37. The Phillies currently hold a slight edge as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%.
Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Phillies, bringing his impressive 2.96 ERA along with a 6-4 record from 17 starts this season. Despite his solid ERA, advanced metrics suggest Sanchez may be pitching above his true skill level, as indicated by his 3.52 xERA. However, his high ground-ball rate (60%) could prove advantageous against a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 124 home runs this season. Sanchez’s projected 5.3 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.8 strikeouts make him a pivotal figure in this contest.
The Dodgers will counter with Gavin Stone, who has a respectable 3.03 ERA and a 9-2 record over 16 starts this season. Like Sanchez, Stone’s advanced stats indicate some luck, with a 4.11 xFIP suggesting regression may be on the horizon. Stone’s projections aren’t as favorable, with an expected 5.0 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs allowed, and 4.4 strikeouts.
Offensively, these teams are powerhouses. The Dodgers hold the top spot in THE BAT X’s Power Rankings, while the Phillies are ranked 5th. Philadelphia has a slight edge in batting average (3rd) and stolen bases (4th), but Los Angeles leads in home runs (3rd) and overall offensive firepower.
Bullpen strength also tilts in favor of the Phillies, who rank 3rd in the advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to the Dodgers’ 6th. This could be a decisive factor in a close game, especially with both starters projected to pitch only around five innings.
In the last week, Rafael Marchan has been the Phillies’ standout hitter with a scorching .500 batting average and 1.404 OPS over four games. For the Dodgers, Will Smith has been on fire, boasting a 1.406 OPS and four home runs over the past five games.
With both teams coming off strong performances, this game is crucial for maintaining momentum. The Phillies, with their favorable odds and well-rounded team, appear to have a slight edge heading into this contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Given the 1.26 discrepancy between Gavin Stone’s 3.03 ERA and his 4.29 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should perform worse going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Chris Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Extreme flyball batters like Chris Taylor tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Freddie Freeman has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Cristopher Sanchez’s 93.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 2.2-mph rise from last season’s 91.6-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Over the past 7 days, Brandon Marsh’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Projected catcher Garrett Stubbs profiles as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+20.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-185)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)