Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
(+100/-120)+165
As the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on September 22, 2024, fans are set for a National League East clash at LoanDepot Park. The Braves, with an 84-71 record, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins are struggling at 57-98, sitting near the bottom of the standings. The Braves are chasing postseason aspirations, and every game counts as they aim to secure their spot.
For this matchup, the Marlins are turning to right-hander Darren McCaughan, who has had a tough season, ranking 329th among approximately 350 starting pitchers. With a high ERA of 7.64 and a tendency to allow flyballs, McCaughan faces a daunting task against a Braves lineup that ranks 4th in home runs. His projected 4.8 innings and 3.1 earned runs allowed suggest challenges ahead.
On the other side, the Braves will start Grant Holmes, another righty, who has been a reliable arm with a 3.84 ERA. Holmes’s 3.14 FIP indicates some bad luck, suggesting he might outperform his ERA going forward. With the Marlins offense ranking 29th overall and struggling with power, Holmes might find some opportunities to keep Miami at bay.
Despite the odds slightly favoring the Braves, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees potential value in betting on the underdog Marlins, projecting them with a 41% win probability. Miami’s Kyle Stowers has been a bright spot recently, boasting a .412 batting average over the last week, while Atlanta’s Matt Olson has been on a tear with a .381 average, 11 RBIs, and 4 home runs in his last seven games.
Ultimately, while Atlanta is favored, Miami’s potential to surprise should not be overlooked, especially with the odds offering a lucrative opportunity for those willing to back them.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 60.8% of the time, checking in at the 82nd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Extreme groundball batters like Orlando Arcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Darren McCaughan.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)In today’s matchup, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Darren McCaughan – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Among all SPs, Darren McCaughan’s fastball velocity of 88.6 mph is in the 2nd percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jonah Bride – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Jonah Bride is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Burger, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+21.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 144 games (+32.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 11 away games (+11.35 Units / 82% ROI)