Review Player Predictions Overview for Astros vs Royals – Saturday April 26, 2025

Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals

On April 26, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium for the second game of their series. Both teams are looking to improve their fortunes, with the Royals sitting at 13-14 and struggling this season, while the Astros, currently at 13-12, are performing slightly better than average. Interestingly, the Royals won their last game 2-0 against the Astros, a rare shutout that could boost their confidence heading into this matchup.

Projected starters for this game are Michael Wacha for the Royals and Framber Valdez for the Astros. Wacha, ranked 80th in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a tough season, holding an 0-3 record despite a respectable ERA of 4.15. His last outing was promising; he pitched five innings, allowing only two earned runs and striking out five batters. However, his tendency to give up hits—averaging 5.4 per game—poses a risk against a lineup like the Astros.

Valdez, on the other hand, is having a solid year and is ranked 15th in MLB. Although his ERA sits at 4.50, projections indicate he could outperform that today, with an expected 2.5 earned runs allowed. His last start was less impressive, where he allowed seven hits and three walks but managed to limit the damage to just two earned runs.

The Royals’ offense has struggled, ranking 29th in MLB, while the Astros aren’t faring much better at 25th. However, this matchup favors Valdez, who excels at inducing ground balls (53% this year) against a Royals team that has hit just 12 home runs this season, the fewest in MLB. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, both teams will look to find their rhythm at the plate, but the Astros might have the edge, especially with their stronger bullpen, ranked 10th compared to the Royals’ 24th.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Framber Valdez was on point in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jeremy Pena tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Wacha.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Vinnie Pasquantino has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.35 Units / 49% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.20 Units / 52% ROI)