Review Player Predictions Overview for Astros vs Reds – Thursday September 5, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on September 5, 2024, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Reds, currently sitting at 67-73, are looking to build on their impressive 12-5 victory over the Astros just a day prior. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 75-64, are trying to shake off that surprising defeat and regain their momentum.

Rhett Lowder is projected to take the mound for the Reds. Despite his excellent ERA of 2.25, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his 4.32 xFIP. Lowder’s performance has been a mixed bag, having started only one game this season with a 0-1 record. He faces a tough challenge against a potent Astros lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB in team batting average. Houston’s best hitter, Yordan Alvarez, has been a consistent force, boasting a .311 batting average and 30 home runs this season.

On the other side, Hunter Brown is slated to start for the Astros. With a solid 3.55 ERA and an impressive 11-7 record over 26 starts, Brown has shown he can handle pressure, recently pitching a complete game shutout. The projections favor the Astros, who are expected to score 5.61 runs on average in this matchup, compared to the Reds’ projected total of 4.74 runs.

While the Reds’ offense ranks 17th overall, they have been buoyed by standout performances from players like Elly De La Cruz. However, their struggles with consistency could play a crucial role against a well-rounded Astros team that ranks 11th in overall offensive production. With the Reds looking to capitalize on their recent win, this game promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams at different ends of the performance spectrum.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Hunter Brown’s 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 87th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Cincinnati’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros batters as a unit place 24th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Rhett Lowder has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -12.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games at home (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 136 games (+17.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 away games (+10.40 Units / 74% ROI)