Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)-120
As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Houston Astros at Petco Park on September 16, 2024, both teams come into the game with solid records, but are dealing with different playoff aspirations. The Padres sit at 85-65, enjoying a strong season, while the Astros are slightly behind at 81-68, in above-average territory. The stakes are high for both sides, particularly for the Padres, who are looking to solidify their postseason standing.
In their last game on September 15, 2024, the Padres edged out the San Francisco Giants with a tight 4-3 victory, showcasing their ability to win close contests. Meanwhile, the Astros defeated the Los Angeles Angels 6-4, further solidifying their competitive edge as they continue to chase a playoff berth.
Yu Darvish is set to take the mound for the Padres. He’s been solid this year with a 3.52 ERA and a respectable 5-3 win/loss record. Darvish’s recent performance has been commendable, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last outing on September 10. On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti is projected to start for the Astros, but his ERA of 4.72 and a 7-12 record indicate struggles this season. While his xFIP suggests some bad luck, he remains a risky option against a potent Padres lineup that ranks 1st in team batting average and 7th in overall offensive production this season.
Interestingly, projections favor the Padres, indicating they have a better chance of winning this matchup than the betting markets suggest. This bodes well for San Diego, especially with Jurickson Profar leading the charge offensively, bolstered by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s recent hot streak. Given the advantages in both starting pitching and offensive firepower, the Padres may be primed to extend their winning streak as they embark on this important series against the Astros.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Spencer Arrighetti is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Today, Jason Heyward is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.4% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Yu Darvish’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (63.5% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Jackson Merrill has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 97.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone group of batters of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 76 games (+13.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-200)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+17.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.80 Units / 245% ROI)