Review Phillies vs D-Backs Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, August 10, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on August 10, 2024, both teams are having solid seasons with the Diamondbacks sitting at 63-53 and the Phillies at 69-46. The stakes are high in this National League matchup, especially as it marks the third game of their series. Arizona will be looking to gain momentum after their last game, which saw them struggle against the Phillies.

Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, bringing a solid 3.75 ERA and a 9-5 record this season. Gallen, ranked 32nd among starting pitchers, has been effective, especially with his high groundball rate of 47%. This could play to his advantage against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 6th in home runs with 124 this season. However, the success of Gallen may hinge on whether he can keep the ball on the ground against hitters like Kyle Schwarber, who has been on a tear, boasting a staggering .483 batting average and 5 home runs in his last week.

On the other side, Aaron Nola is slated to pitch for Philadelphia. With an impressive 3.54 ERA and an 11-5 record, he stands just one spot ahead of Gallen in the rankings at 31st. Nola has shown great consistency this season and will be looking to exploit any weaknesses in the Diamondbacks’ lineup.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are projected to score 4.60 runs while the Phillies are forecasted to score slightly more at 4.87 runs. Given the Diamondbacks’ strong batting average, ranking 7th in the league, they have the potential to put runs on the board but will need to be wary of Nola’s strikeout capability. Overall, the matchup promises to be a closely contested game, with both teams having the tools to come out on top.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Aaron Nola today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Trea Turner has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Zac Gallen conceded a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last game started.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jake McCarthy’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 88.5-mph average last season has lowered to 86.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 67 of their last 113 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 22 games (+42.00 Units / 191% ROI)