Baltimore Orioles
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-120
As the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles gear up for their September 28, 2024, matchup, the stakes are quite different for these two teams. The Orioles have had a good season, boasting an 89-71 record, while the Twins have been average with an 82-78 record. However, based on current standings and the time of year, it is unlikely that either team will be making a serious playoff push.
Just yesterday, the Twins were handed a 7-2 loss by the Orioles, demonstrating Baltimore’s strong form as they look to sweep the series. Zebby Matthews is set to start for Minnesota, and while he ranks as an average pitcher, his high-flyball tendency could prove costly against a powerful Orioles lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs. Matthews appears unlucky this season as indicated by his lower xFIP compared to his ERA, suggesting potential for improvement. In contrast, the Orioles will counter with Matt Bowman, whose performance metrics suggest he’s been fortunate this year. His prolonged stint in the bullpen could be a vulnerability.
Offensive dynamics are equally intriguing. Minnesota’s offense ranks 11th, showing promise, but has struggled with stolen bases, holding the worst rank in MLB. Baltimore, on the other hand, has a top-10 offense in both batting average and home runs. Ryan Mountcastle has been on fire recently, posting a .462 batting average over the last week, adding to the Orioles’ fearsome lineup.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slight edge in today’s game, estimating a 54% chance of a win, which surpasses their implied probability. While oddsmakers anticipate a close contest, give a closer look to Baltimore given their recent form and strong offensive matchup against Matthews’ tendencies.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Ranking 4th-highest in the majors this year, Baltimore Orioles bats jointly have posted a 14.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Zebby Matthews – Over/Under Pitching OutsZebby Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Ryan Jeffers’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 83.5-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Minnesota Twins batters collectively grade out 21st- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+15.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)Ramon Urias has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+17.70 Units / 70% ROI)