Review Mariners vs Rangers Bets and Betting Trends – Sunday, September 22, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

In an American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners visit the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 22, 2024. With the Mariners holding a record of 80-75, they are having an above-average season and remain in the hunt for further October action. Conversely, the Rangers, at 73-82, find their playoff aspirations slipping as the season winds down.

Yesterday, the Mariners claimed an 8-4 victory over the Rangers, bolstered by strong performances from both sides of the plate. Bryan Woo takes the mound for Seattle, and while his impressive ERA of 2.85 on the season paints a picture of excellence, his recent outing on September 17 saw him struggle, allowing seven earned runs. Even so, Woo remains ranked as the 33rd-best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his overall performance this year.

Opposing him from the Rangers’ side is Andrew Heaney, who has notched a 3.89 ERA across 29 starts. Ranked 146th among his peers, Heaney has experienced a challenging season, with a win-loss record of 5-14. Despite this, his latest outing on September 8 showed flashes of promise as he managed eight strikeouts over six innings, albeit with three earned runs.

Offensively, the Rangers rank near the bottom of the league in several categories, with their overall offensive rank sitting at 25th. Meanwhile, the Mariners, though also struggling at the plate, find solace in their slightly better ranking and decent power numbers, sitting 14th in home runs.

Despite the low game total of 7.5 runs, Seattle is slightly favored, with betting markets giving them a 55% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a closer affair, projecting a tighter margin. As the Mariners aim to keep their postseason hopes alive, this contest holds significant implications for Seattle’s playoff push.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Bryan Woo’s change-up utilization has increased by 6% from last year to this one (3.6% to 9.6%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 8th-best batter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In today’s matchup, Randy Arozarena is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.1% rate (78th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Over the past week, Jonah Heim’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.5%.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 away games (+17.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+19.15 Units / 47% ROI)