Review Mariners vs Rangers Bets and Betting Trends – Sunday, September 22, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers gear up to face the Seattle Mariners on September 22, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League West standings. The Rangers, with a 73-82 record, have struggled throughout the season, while the Mariners, boasting an 80-75 record, are enjoying an above-average season and are still in the hunt for a potential playoff spot.

In yesterday’s matchup, the Mariners managed to secure a win, thanks in part to their solid pitching and timely hitting. As they look to extend their momentum, the Mariners will send Bryan Woo to the mound. Woo, ranked 33rd among starting pitchers, has been a key contributor with an impressive 8-3 record and a stellar 2.85 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP suggests he might have been a little fortunate this season.

Meanwhile, the Rangers will counter with Andrew Heaney, who has had a challenging season with a 5-14 record and a 3.89 ERA. Despite being ranked 146th in the starting pitcher rankings, Heaney’s control has been a bright spot, which could help mitigate Seattle’s patient approach at the plate, as they rank 4th in drawing walks.

Offensively, both teams have faced their share of struggles. The Rangers rank 25th in offense, while the Mariners aren’t far ahead at 22nd. However, Seattle’s lineup has shown flashes of power, ranking 14th in home runs, which could be a factor against a Rangers pitching staff that has been average at best.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight edge with a 54% win probability, aligning closely with the betting markets’ implied probability of 53%. With both teams looking to make a statement, this matchup at Globe Life Field promises to be a closely contested battle.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bryan Woo’s change-up utilization has increased by 6% from last year to this one (3.6% to 9.6%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) provides evidence that Jorge Polanco has had bad variance on his side this year with his .276 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s matchup, Mitch Haniger is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38% rate (75th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the last 7 days, Nathaniel Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 away games (+17.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 29 games (+19.15 Units / 47% ROI)