Review Giants vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – 7/23/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants face off at Dodger Stadium on July 23, 2024, in the second game of their National League West series. The Dodgers, with a season record of 60-41, are having a stellar campaign and currently sit atop their division. On the other hand, the Giants, at 48-53, are struggling to find their footing this season.

The Dodgers claimed a narrow 3-2 victory over the Giants on July 22, with a game that was expected to be tight given their odds. Shohei Ohtani has been a standout for the Dodgers this season, boasting a batting average of .313, 30 home runs, and a stellar 1.033 OPS.

On the mound, the Dodgers will turn to right-handed pitcher Landon Knack. Despite his impressive 3.23 ERA, Knack’s peripheral stats suggest he’s been fortunate, with a 4.21 xFIP indicating potential regression. In his last outing on July 4, Knack pitched 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. THE BAT X projects Knack to pitch 4.6 innings, with 2.7 earned runs and 4.7 strikeouts, which could spell trouble for the Dodgers.

The Giants will counter with Jordan Hicks, who holds a 3.79 ERA. Like Knack, Hicks has shown signs of having been lucky this season, evidenced by his 4.75 xERA. Hicks got roughed up in his last start on July 11, surrendering 5 earned runs over 4 innings. Projections for Hicks today include a brief 4.8 innings outing, with 2.9 earned runs and 4.1 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 1st in MLB, fueled by power with the 3rd most home runs in the league. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is middling at best, ranking 15th overall and struggling with power, sitting at 25th in home runs.

Despite both pitchers trending towards regression, the powerful Dodgers lineup gives them the edge. While the Dodgers have a 59% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sets their chances slightly lower at 55%, indicating this might be closer than it seems. However, with the Giants projected win probability being 4% higher than betting odds, savvy bettors might find value in backing the Giants as they look to bounce back.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Over his previous 3 outings, Jordan Hicks has suffered a notable decrease in his fastball velocity: from 93.8 mph over the whole season to 92.6 mph of late.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Conforto is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cavan Biggio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Cavan Biggio’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.1-mph figure last season has lowered to 82.2-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)