Review Brewers vs Pirates Betting Line and Odds – 9/24/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2024, in a National League Central matchup at PNC Park. The Pirates are playing out the string, sitting at 73-83, while the Brewers, at 89-67, are having a strong season and are still in the hunt for the division title. With this being the first game of the series, both teams will look to set the tone.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Bailey Falter, a left-hander who has had an up-and-down season with an 8-8 record and a 4.15 ERA. Despite these numbers being above average, his 4.69 xFIP suggests some regression might be in order. Falter is projected to struggle, with a projection of allowing 2.6 earned runs over 4.6 innings. On the other side, Tobias Myers will start for the Brewers. Myers boasts a superb 3.05 ERA, although his 4.01 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate. Despite this, Myers is expected to perform adequately, with a projection of 2.4 earned runs across 4.9 innings.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 28th in MLB, struggling particularly in power categories like home runs, where they sit 26th. However, Oneil Cruz has been swinging a hot bat, with a 1.188 OPS and two homers over the last week. The Brewers, on the other hand, are a top-10 offensive squad, ranking 8th in batting average and 3rd in stolen bases. William Contreras has been a standout lately, hitting .412 with a 1.062 OPS in the past seven games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight edge with a projected win probability of 53%, compared to their implied win probability of 57%. This suggests a potentially tighter contest than the odds imply, with the Brewers’ offensive depth likely being a key factor. Expect a competitive game with a low total of 7.5 runs, where timely hitting and bullpen performance could make the difference.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Bailey Falter has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 95.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100 mph or harder this year, ranking them as the #9 team in the league by this stat.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+7.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+8.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)