Review Astros vs Phillies Betting Line and Odds – 8/27/2024

Houston Astros

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Houston Astros on August 27, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings as the season winds down. The Phillies currently hold a strong record of 77-54, positioning them well in the playoff race, while the Astros sit at 70-61, striving to stay competitive. Following a tight contest the previous day, the Phillies emerged victorious with a 3-2 win over the Astros, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure.

On the mound, Aaron Nola is projected to start for Philadelphia. Nola has had a solid season, posting an 11-6 record with a commendable ERA of 3.45. However, his 4.03 FIP suggests he may not be as dominant as his ERA indicates. The Astros will counter with Justin Verlander, who has a 3.92 ERA this year, but has been slightly fortunate, as indicated by his 4.89 xFIP. Both pitchers are right-handed and experienced, presenting an intriguing matchup.

Offensively, the Phillies feature a lineup that ranks as the 7th best in MLB, with an impressive third ranking in team batting average this season. Kyle Schwarber has been a key contributor, leading the team with 28 home runs and 82 RBIs. Meanwhile, the Astros boast the 11th best offense, with Yordan Alvarez leading the way. However, Philadelphia’s power-hitting capabilities could exploit Verlander’s flyball tendencies, providing them an edge.

The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Phillies are favored to win this matchup, with projected team totals of 5.02 runs compared to the Astros’ 4.75 runs. As the teams clash once more, the Phillies look to build on their momentum and continue their successful season.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Justin Verlander’s slider rate has dropped by 6.4% from last year to this one (25.3% to 18.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  In the last 7 days, Jon Singleton’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 33.3%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Over his last 3 GS, Aaron Nola has seen a big rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2296 rpm over the whole season to 2358 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Brandon Marsh has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+13.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+14.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 41% ROI)