Review Angels vs Blue Jays Bets and Betting Trends – Friday, August 23, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on August 23, 2024, as both teams continue to navigate disappointing seasons. Currently, the Blue Jays hold a record of 60-68, while the Angels sit at 54-74. Both squads have struggled, but the Blue Jays managed to secure a 5-3 victory against the Angels yesterday, showcasing a bit of momentum.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the hill. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 9-12 and an average ERA of 4.34, advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average. In his last outing on August 17, he allowed three earned runs over five innings. Bassitt projects to pitch around 5.9 innings today, giving up approximately 2.5 earned runs, which is solid.

Facing him will be Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled this season, with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.53. Kochanowicz’s last start saw him allow just 2 earned runs, but he was hit hard with 7 hits and 3 walks. He is projected to pitch about 5.2 innings and give up nearly 2.9 earned runs.

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 15th in MLB—an average position—although they struggle with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Angels rank 23rd in overall offense, not offering much challenge against Bassitt. THE BAT X projects the Blue Jays to score 4.92 runs today, which aligns with their high implied team total of 5.14 runs, suggesting they could exploit Kochanowicz’s weaknesses effectively.

With the Blue Jays looking to build on their recent win and the Angels trying to halt their downward spiral, this matchup could be pivotal for both teams in a season lacking direction.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball batters, Jack Kochanowicz and his 51.2% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this matchup going up against 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Niko Kavadas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Niko Kavadas is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Los Angeles Angels offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Chris Bassitt’s four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 5.7% from last season to this one (9.3% to 3.6%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Will Wagner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Will Wagner is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+17.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)