Reds vs Rockies Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, April 27, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Cincinnati Reds at Coors Field on April 27, 2025, in the third game of their series. After a hard-fought contest yesterday, the Rockies fell to the Reds by a score of 6-4, continuing their difficult season. Colorado currently holds a dismal record of 4-22, while Cincinnati is faring better at 14-13.

On the mound, the Rockies are set to start Bradley Blalock, a right-handed pitcher who has yet to make a start this season, appearing only twice out of the bullpen. His current ERA is a troubling 6.00, and while his 3.57 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, the projections suggest he may still struggle, with an average of 3.2 earned runs expected today over 4.3 innings. Conversely, Nick Lodolo, the Reds’ left-handed starter, brings a solid resume into this matchup. Lodolo’s ERA stands at an impressive 2.79, and he has shown commendable strikeout ability, though he has been somewhat lucky this year.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 25th in the league, struggling particularly with a team batting average of .228, which is 28th overall. In contrast, the Reds boast the 7th best offense, highlighted by a strong batting average of .262 and an impressive 10th ranking in home runs. This discrepancy underscores a potential advantage for Cincinnati as they face a Rockies team that is both inefficient at the plate and struggling with their pitching.

Despite yesterday’s loss, Colorado’s offense showed sparks against a solid Reds pitcher, and facing a below-average pitcher like Lodolo could present an opportunity to turn their season around. With high total runs projected at 11.5, bettors may look to capitalize on a Rockies team finally poised to break out.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds project to score the most runs on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Bradley Blalock – Over/Under Strikeouts
  As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Bradley Blalock in the 5th percentile among all starters in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jordan Beck has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100-mph average to last season’s 90.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .289 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+360/-540)
  Austin Hays has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+13.15 Units / 132% ROI)