Reds vs Marlins Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Monday August 5, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Miami Marlins

As the Cincinnati Reds visit LoanDepot Park to face the Miami Marlins on August 5, 2024, both teams are looking to make their mark in this opening game of a three-game series. The Marlins are struggling at 42-70, while the Reds sit at 53-58, making this matchup particularly critical for both squads as they seek to improve their seasons.

In their last outing, the Marlins secured a surprising 7-0 shutout victory against the Atlanta Braves, showcasing their potential despite an overall disappointing season. On the other hand, the Reds faced a tough loss against the San Francisco Giants, falling 8-2. This sets the stage for an intriguing battle, especially as the Marlins look to build on their recent success.

Miami’s Roddery Munoz, projected to start, has had a rough year, ranking as the 333rd best starting pitcher in MLB. His current ERA of 5.45 is concerning, especially considering his expected ERA (xERA) of 6.14, which suggests he may not be able to maintain even his current level of performance. Conversely, Nick Martinez of the Reds has been a solid presence on the mound, boasting a respectable ERA of 3.65.

The projections for this game indicate a close contest, with the Marlins expected to score around 4.39 runs, while the Reds are projected to tally approximately 5.08 runs. This aligns with the Reds’ offensive capabilities, including their 13th rank in home runs, compared to the Marlins’ 29th rank in the same category.

With both teams eager to turn their fortunes around, this matchup promises to deliver an exciting game as the Reds aim to capitalize on their strengths against a Marlins squad that is still searching for consistency.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Martinez must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot this year: 63% of the time, ranking in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jake Fraley will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Cincinnati Reds (23.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy team of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Roddery Munoz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Among all SPs, Roddery Munoz’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) provides evidence that Xavier Edwards has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .346 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Miami Marlins batters as a unit rank among the worst in baseball this year ( 6th-worst) as far as their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 91 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+18.50 Units / 206% ROI)