Reds vs Cubs Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/06/2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field on August 6, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the National League Central. The Cubs enter this game with a solid 65-48 record, showcasing their strong performance this season. The Reds, sitting at 60-54, have also had an above-average year. However, recent struggles have seen the Reds drop two of their last three games, while the Cubs are riding high with impressive offensive stats, ranking 3rd in MLB for overall performance.

Cade Horton will take the mound for the Cubs, having started 14 games this season with a Win/Loss record of 5-3 and an ERA of 3.42. Despite being ranked 160th among all MLB starting pitchers, Horton’s ERA suggests some level of luck, as indicated by his 4.49 xFIP. On the other side, Andrew Abbott will start for the Reds. Abbott boasts an excellent ERA of 2.15 and an impressive 8-1 record over 19 starts, ranking him 90th in the league. Both pitchers face tough challenges today, particularly with Abbott being a high-flyball pitcher going against a Cubs offense that has hit 161 home runs this season—ranking 4th in MLB.

In terms of offense, the Cubs’ lineup has been red-hot, while the Reds sit in the middle of the pack in most offensive rankings. With the Cubs projected to score around 4.01 runs and the Reds only 3.49, bettors might find value in favoring the Cubs. The game’s total is set at a low 7.5 runs, highlighting the expectation of a tightly contested battle. As the Cubs continue to solidify their position in the playoff race, this matchup could be pivotal for them in maintaining momentum.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  In the past two weeks, Austin Hays’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Cade Horton’s high usage percentage of his fastball (53.3% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Dansby Swanson’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 90.2-mph seasonal average has fallen to 83.3-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs (19.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 111 games (+14.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+21.50 Units / 19% ROI)