Reds vs Braves Prediction and Game Breakdown – Tuesday May 6, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves

On May 6, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will face the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Braves are currently struggling with a 16-18 record, placing them below average this season, while the Reds sit at an even 18-18, marking them as an average team. Atlanta’s recent performance has been lackluster, and they will be looking to bounce back after losing the first game of the series.

Starting for the Braves is Chris Sale, who, despite his elite ranking as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has had a rough season with a 1-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.84. However, Sale’s projected performance suggests he may be due for a turnaround, as his 3.25 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky this year. He is expected to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, striking out 7.5 batters, and giving up 5.0 hits, which could bode well against a Reds offense that has been average at best.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott will take the mound for Cincinnati. Abbott has had a promising start to the season with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 2.84. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of performance. Abbott’s projections indicate he will pitch around 5.0 innings, but he is likely to struggle with 3.1 earned runs and 5.3 hits allowed.

The Braves’ offense ranks 14th in MLB, while the Reds are slightly behind at 12th. Given the Braves’ current form and Sale’s potential for a strong outing, they are favored with a moneyline of -215, indicating a high implied team total of 4.72 runs for the game. This matchup could be a turning point for Atlanta if Sale can deliver on his projections and the offense can capitalize on their opportunities.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Stephenson has been lucky since the start of last season. His .343 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .306.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Blake Dunn).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his huge platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Austin Riley’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 19.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 10.2% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves grades them out as the #6 squad in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)