Reds vs Braves Picks and Betting Odds – 7/22/2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves, with a solid 54-44 record, host the Cincinnati Reds (47-53) at Truist Park on July 22, 2024, for the first game in their series. Atlanta is currently having a successful season and is well-positioned for a potential playoff run, whereas Cincinnati has struggled and is below average this year.

On the mound for the Braves will be Reynaldo Lopez, a right-handed pitcher with an impressive season ERA of 1.88###101, though his xFIP of 3.79 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate. Lopez has a respectable Win/Loss record of 7-3 in 17 starts this year and is projected to pitch approximately 4.9 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs. Despite Lopez’s short outings, he has been effective, particularly in striking out opponents, averaging 6.1 strikeouts per start.

Opposing Lopez, the Reds will send Hunter Greene to the hill. Greene, an above-average pitcher ranked #62 according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a strong ERA of 3.34 but, like Lopez, his xFIP of 4.18 suggests some luck has been involved. Greene boasts a Win/Loss record of 6-4 and is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, with an estimated 2.9 earned runs given up. His ability to miss bats is notable, projecting 7.0 strikeouts per start.

The Braves enter this game as favorites with a current moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, bolstered by their 57% projected win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The Reds, with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, will look to overcome these odds.

Offensively, the Braves have an edge, especially with power, ranking 10th in team home runs. Marcell Ozuna has been a standout, recording 28 home runs and a .976 OPS. However, the Braves’ lineup struggles with stolen bases, ranking 26th. Meanwhile, the Reds excel in speed, leading MLB in stolen bases, though their overall offensive ranks are less impressive, highlighted by their 26th ranking in team batting average.

Bullpen performance could be a deciding factor. Atlanta’s bullpen ranks 7th, providing a notable advantage over Cincinnati’s 26th-ranked bullpen. This might be crucial in a game with a low total of 7.5 runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Hunter Greene has utilized his slider 6.3% less often this year (34.2%) than he did last season (40.5%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Atlanta (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s 2063-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a big 126-rpm drop off from last season’s 2189-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jarred Kelenic is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 89 games (+26.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+7.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)