Red Sox vs White Sox Match Preview and Winning Probability – Friday April 11, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Boston Red Sox on April 11, 2025, in the first game of their series at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, struggling with a 2-10 record this season, find themselves at the bottom of the standings, while the Red Sox are sitting at an even 7-7, indicative of an average season thus far. Notably, the White Sox have been having a rough time lately, and they will be looking to bounce back after a tough stretch.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Davis Martin, who has had a challenging season with a 0-1 record and a troubling 5.73 ERA. Martin’s peripherals suggest he could perform even worse going forward. He faces Sean Newcomb of the Red Sox, who also holds a 0-1 record but has a slightly better ERA of 5.19, indicating that he has had some tough luck this year. The projections suggest that while both pitchers have been below average, Newcomb may have the edge due to his better peripherals.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 26th in the league, with a dismal performance at the plate, including a 28th rank in team batting average. In contrast, the Red Sox boast the 9th best offense overall and the 7th best batting average, giving them a significant advantage. The Red Sox’s recent form is bolstered by their best hitter, who has recorded 12 hits and a .444 average over the last week.

With the White Sox being big underdogs and a low implied team total of 3.53 runs, it’s critical for them to exploit any weaknesses in Newcomb’s game. However, given the current form and offensive firepower of the Red Sox, they enter this matchup as the betting favorites, suggesting a challenging day ahead for the White Sox.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sean Newcomb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Sean Newcomb in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Triston Casas has big-time HR ability (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Davis Martin struggles to strike batters out (24th percentile K%) — great news for Casas.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Among all starting pitchers, Davis Martin’s fastball spin rate of 2385.2 rpm ranks in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Andrew Vaughn has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season’s 90.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+5.45 Units / 20% ROI)