Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)+115
As the Boston Red Sox travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on September 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions, hovering around .500. The Rays stand at 73-77 while the Red Sox are slightly better at 75-75. This matchup marks the first in a series between these two American League East rivals, both looking to build some momentum.
In their last outings, the Rays faced the Guardians and suffered a 2-0 defeat, while the Red Sox lost to the Yankees, 5-2. Notably, the Red Sox’s Nick Pivetta is projected to start, and he enters the game after a solid performance in which he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters. This is a positive sign for a pitcher who has struggled with a 5-10 record this season but boasts an above-average ERA of 4.24.
On the other side, the Rays will start Shane Baz, who has had a rocky year with a 2-3 record and a great ERA of 3.28. However, his xFIP of 4.61 suggests he has been somewhat lucky and may face challenges against a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 6th best in MLB. The projections indicate that the Red Sox are expected to score 4.45 runs on average, whereas the Rays are estimated to manage only 4.09 runs.
The Rays have struggled offensively this season, ranking 27th in MLB, particularly in home runs, which could play into Pivetta’s hands as a high-flyball pitcher. Additionally, while Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks 3rd overall, their offense may not provide enough support against a Red Sox lineup featuring standout players like Jarren Duran.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 149 games (+21.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 47 away games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+8.60 Units / 172% ROI)