Red Sox vs Rangers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 3/28/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers host the Boston Red Sox on March 28, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this early season matchup. The Rangers, currently struggling with a 0-1 record, are projected to start Jack Leiter, who is ranked as the 308th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. This ranking highlights his challenges, especially as he projects to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs—numbers that don’t inspire confidence.

In contrast, the Red Sox enter this game with a 1-0 record and are projected to start Tanner Houck, who ranks 42nd among MLB starting pitchers. Houck’s projections suggest he will pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, showcasing a more stable performance compared to Leiter. The Red Sox offense, which ranks 7th in MLB, has demonstrated its potential by scoring effectively in their season opener.

The Rangers’ offense, however, is struggling with a 24th overall ranking, particularly in batting average where they sit at 22nd. Their ability to generate runs will be crucial against a Red Sox team that boasts a strong lineup, ranking 6th in batting average and 9th in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be competitive, as indicated by both teams’ moneyline being set at -110. The Rangers have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, but given their recent form and offensive struggles, they will need to significantly elevate their play to challenge the Red Sox effectively.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jack Leiter has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 11 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Jake Burger is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Today, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.3% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games at home (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 away games (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)