Red Sox vs Rangers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, March 30, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Texas Rangers

On March 30, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rangers enter this game with a strong 2-1 record, while the Red Sox sit at 1-2, struggling early in the season. In their last outing, the Rangers edged out the Red Sox in a tight contest, winning 4-3, which has added some momentum for Texas as they look to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Texas is projected to start Jacob deGrom, who ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. DeGrom has been impressive, projecting to allow just 1.8 earned runs and strike out 7.0 batters on average today. However, he does have some concerning projections, allowing 3.6 hits and 1.2 walks, which could give Boston’s offense opportunities to capitalize.

On the other side, Richard Fitts is expected to take the mound for Boston. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Fitts is regarded as one of the worst pitchers in the league. His projections are troubling, with averages of 2.7 earned runs, 4.7 hits, and 1.3 walks, all of which could spell trouble against a Rangers lineup that, despite its overall low rankings, still has potential to produce.

Interestingly, the Rangers’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, but with a solid pitching performance from deGrom, they may not need to score heavily to secure the win. Meanwhile, Boston’s offense ranks 7th in the league, but they will need to find a way to overcome Fitts’ shortcomings to avoid another disappointing loss.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, expectations are low for scoring, but the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -170, reflecting a belief that they can build on their recent success. As the season progresses, this matchup could be pivotal for both teams, especially the Red Sox, who need to turn things around quickly.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Richard Fitts to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Wilyer Abreu has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 26.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
  Jacob deGrom has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 1.69 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.09 — a 1.4 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Kyle Higashioka has strong power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Richard Fitts has a pitch-to-contact profile (24th percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 away games (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)