Red Sox vs Orioles Picks and Betting Tips – August 17th, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in an intriguing battle within the American League East. The Orioles, holding a strong record of 72-51, are enjoying a great season, while the Red Sox, at 64-57, are having an above-average year. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the third game of the series, with the Red Sox coming off a dramatic 12-10 victory over the Orioles just a day earlier.

On the mound, the Orioles will send Cade Povich, who has struggled this season with a 1-5 record and a concerning ERA of 6.27. Despite his poor performance, advanced metrics suggest he might have been unlucky, as his xERA of 4.32 indicates potential for improvement. Povich’s low strikeout rate could be a factor, especially against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts. In contrast, Brayan Bello, projected to start for the Red Sox, boasts a much more respectable 10-5 record and an ERA of 4.97, though he also has shown some signs of bad luck with a 3.76 xFIP.

Offensively, the Orioles are a powerhouse, ranking 1st in MLB for home runs and 2nd for overall offense. Their best hitter, Gunnar Henderson, has produced impressive numbers this season, with 31 home runs and a .927 OPS. Meanwhile, Jarren Duran leads the Red Sox, contributing significantly with a .291 batting average and 15 home runs.

With the projections indicating a slight edge for the Orioles to score around 5.04 runs, they may have the upper hand in this matchup, especially given the Red Sox’s recent victory. As both teams look to solidify their standings, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair with playoff implications.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Brayan Bello’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.7% vs. 43.1% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Connor Wong is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox bats as a unit place 5th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  In his previous outing, Cade Povich didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan O’Hearn has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 122 games (+16.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 56 games (+18.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.00 Units / 64% ROI)