Red Sox vs Angels Prediction and Game Breakdown – Monday June 23, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Boston Red Sox on June 23, 2025, at Angel Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Angels at 37-40 and the Red Sox at 40-39, making this matchup significant in the context of their respective seasons. The Angels are struggling, ranking 24th in MLB offensive performance and possessing the worst bullpen, which could be a critical factor in this game.

Jack Kochanowicz is projected to take the mound for Los Angeles. Despite being ranked as the 193rd best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown some potential with a 4.67 xFIP, suggesting he might be due for a turnaround. However, his 5.38 ERA and 3-8 record this season indicate a challenging year thus far. He will face Walker Buehler, who has also had his share of difficulties, posting a 5.95 ERA and a 5-5 record. Interestingly, despite their struggles, both pitchers are right-handed, and Kochanowicz’s low strikeout rate may benefit him against a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts.

The Red Sox’s offense has been more effective overall, ranking 8th in MLB, and they have a dangerous combination of power and speed, evident in their 10th ranking in home runs and 7th in stolen bases. The projections for this game set the total at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting the potential for offensive fireworks.

With the Angels’ moneyline sitting at +105, they are viewed as slight underdogs, but the close odds suggest this matchup could be tighter than expected. The Angels’ recent offensive struggles could be a concern, but if Kochanowicz can outperform his season stats and the lineup can capitalize on Buehler’s vulnerabilities, they may have a chance to surprise the Red Sox in this tightly contested game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.7 mph this season (93.4 mph) below where it was last season (95.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Abraham Toro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Abraham Toro is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .322 overall projected rate, the .311 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Boston Red Sox projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jo Adell has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.4-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 43% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-170)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+6.40 Units / 160% ROI)