Recommended Player Prop Bets for Yankees vs Phillies – Wednesday July 31, 2024

New York Yankees

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Philadelphia Phillies

On July 31, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park in what promises to be a thrilling interleague matchup. This game, the third in the series, will showcase two teams having excellent seasons. The Phillies currently boast a 65-41 record, while the Yankees trail slightly at 63-45. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, making this a pivotal game.

Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Phillies. Sanchez has been solid on the mound this season and will face a Yankees offense that ranks 12th in MLB in team batting average. However, the Yankees’ power at the plate is undeniable, ranking 2nd in home runs. Sanchez will need to be cautious, as the Yankees’ bats can change the game’s outcome in an instant.

On the other side, the Yankees will counter with lefty Nestor Cortes. Cortes has had a strong season, but he faces a daunting task against a potent Phillies lineup. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 3rd in team batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases, showcasing their well-rounded attack. The Phillies’ offense has been clicking on all cylinders, and Cortes will need to bring his A-game to keep them in check.

Kyle Schwarber has been the standout for the Phillies over the last week, posting a .350 batting average with three home runs and a 1.419 OPS. His hot streak will be crucial for the Phillies as they look to capitalize on their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge has been on fire for the Yankees, boasting a .400 batting average, four home runs, and a 1.650 OPS over the last seven games. His performance will be key for New York, especially given their struggles in the stolen base department, where they rank 29th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge in this matchup. With both teams riding high and eyeing playoff positions, this game promises to be a high-stakes, high-drama affair.

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Nestor Cortes’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.6% compared to 47.5% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees hitters as a unit rank in baseball for power this year when using their 10.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Cristopher Sanchez’s fastball velocity has spiked 2.2 mph this season (93.8 mph) over where it was last year (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bryce Harper has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 90 games (+17.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+15.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-280)
  Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.35 Units / 43% ROI)