Recommended Player Prop Bets for White Sox vs Giants – Tuesday August 20, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and Chicago White Sox prepare for their second matchup in this series on August 20, 2024, the Giants will look to build on their recent victory against the White Sox, winning 5-3 in yesterday’s game. Currently, the Giants sit at 64-63, having an average season, while the White Sox’s struggles continue, holding a dismal record of 30-96.

Robbie Ray takes the mound for the Giants, coming off a rough outing on August 14 where he was knocked out early, allowing 5 earned runs in just 1 inning. Despite that, Ray, ranked the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown signs of potential improvement with a 4.25 xFIP that suggests he has been unlucky this season. He generally projects to pitch 6.0 innings and allow around 2.6 earned runs, which would be a strong performance.

On the other hand, the White Sox will counter with Davis Martin, who has struggled despite having a respectable 3.00 ERA. Martin’s 4.79 xFIP indicates that he may be due for some regression, especially considering he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. His high walk rate could prove detrimental against a Giants offense that has ranked 6th in MLB for drawing walks.

The Giants feature a robust bullpen, rated 2nd best in MLB, while the White Sox’s bullpen languishes at 30th. With the Giants’ batting order showing decent form—particularly Matt Chapman—who has been their best hitter this season, they possess a high implied team total of 4.80 runs. In contrast, the White Sox have the lowest-ranked offense in MLB, projected to tally just 3.20 runs. Given these matchups and the projections, the Giants appear poised to capitalize on their favorable conditions and continue their momentum.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Davis Martin has notched a fantastic 2.93 ERA over his last 3 GS.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Korey Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Korey Lee has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 88-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.267) suggests that Tyler Fitzgerald has experienced some positive variance this year with his .314 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The San Francisco Giants have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Grant McCray, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-150)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
• Grant McCray – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Grant McCray has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)