Recommended Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Orioles – Friday May 16, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Washington Nationals on May 16, 2025, both teams are struggling in the early season, with the Orioles holding a 15-27 record while the Nationals sit at 18-27. This Interleague matchup marks the first of the series, adding a bit of excitement despite both teams not being in contention for a playoff spot. The Orioles are projected to start Cade Povich, who has a rough Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.55, indicating a challenging season for the young left-hander. Meanwhile, MacKenzie Gore, slated to pitch for the Nationals, boasts a much more favorable ERA of 3.59 and ranks as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats.

In their last game, the Nationals showcased a strong performance, but they still face challenges against the Orioles’ decent bullpen, which ranks 9th best in MLB. The projections suggest that Cade Povich will struggle, projecting an average of 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 2.8 earned runs, while MacKenzie Gore is expected to go deeper into the game, averaging 5.4 innings with 3.0 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, while the Orioles rank 22nd in MLB, they are bolstered by a recent hot streak from their best hitter, who has recorded 9 hits and 7 RBIs over the past week. On the other side, the Nationals’ offense ranks 20th, but they also have a standout performer, who has been even better with a .429 batting average over the same stretch.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. MacKenzie Gore has gone to his non-fastballs 6.5% more often this year (51.2%) than he did last year (44.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Hitters such as Josh Bell with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Povich who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Among all starters, Cade Povich’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Cedric Mullins is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.90 Units / 86% ROI)